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Abstract The national upgrade of the operational weather radar network to include polarimetric capabilities has lead to numerous studies focusing on polarimetric radar signatures commonly observed in supercells. One such signature is the horizontal separation of regions of enhanced differential reflectivity ( Z DR ) and specific differential phase ( K DP ) values due to hydrometeor size sorting. Recent observational studies have shown that the orientation of this separation tends to be more perpendicular to storm motion in supercells that produce tornadoes. Although this finding has potential operational utility, the physical relationship between this observed radar signature and tornadic potential is not known. This study uses an ensemble of supercell simulations initialized with tornadic and nontornadic environments to investigate this connection. The tendency for tornadic supercells to have a more perpendicular separation orientation was reproduced, although to a lesser degree. This difference in orientation angles was caused by stronger rearward storm-relative flow in the nontornadic supercells, leading to a rearward shift of precipitation and, therefore, the enhanced K DP region within the supercell. Further, this resulted in an unfavorable rearward shift of the negative buoyancy region, which led to an order of magnitude less baroclinic generation of circulation in the nontornadic simulations compared to tornadic simulations. 

Abstract Hailstorms pose a significant socioeconomic risk, necessitating detailed assessments of how the hail threat changes throughout their lifetimes. Hail production involves the favorable juxtaposition of ingredients, but how storm evolution affects these ingredients is unknown, limiting understanding of how hail production evolves. Unfortunately, neither surface hail reports nor radar-based swath estimates have adequate resolution or details needed to assess evolving hail production. Instead, we use a novel approach of coupling a detailed hail trajectory model to idealized convective storm simulations to better understand storm evolution’s influence on hail production. Hail production varies substantially throughout storms’ mature phases: maximum sizes vary by a factor of two, and the concentration of severe hail more than fivefold during 45-60-min periods. This variability arises from changes in updraft properties, which come from (i) changes in low-level convergence, and (ii) internal storm dynamics, including anticyclonic vortex shedding/storm splitting, and the response of the updraft’s airflow and supercooled liquid water content to these events. Hodograph shape strongly affects such behaviors. Straighter hodographs lead to more prolific hail production through wider updrafts and weaker mesocyclones, and a periodicity in hail size metrics associated with anticyclonic vortex shedding and/or storm splitting. In contrast, a curved hodograph (favorable for tornadoes) led to a storm with a stronger but more compact updraft, which occasionally produced giant (10-cm) hail, but that was a less-prolific severe hail producer overall. Unless storms are adequately sampled throughout their lifecycles, snapshots from ground reports will insufficiently resolve the true nature of hail production. 

Abstract Polarimetric radar data from the WSR-88D network are used to examine the evolution of various polarimetric precursor signatures to tornado dissipation within a sample of 36 supercell storms. These signatures include an increase in bulk hook echo median raindrop size, a decrease in midlevel differential radar reflectivity factor (Z_DR) column area, a decrease in the magnitude of theZ_DRarc, an increase in the area of low-level large hail, and a decrease in the orientation angle of the vector separating low-levelZ_DRand specific differential phase (K_DP) maxima. Only supercells that produced “long-duration” tornadoes (with at least four consecutive volumes of WSR-88D data) are investigated, so that signatures can be sufficiently tracked in time, and novel algorithms are used to isolate each storm-scale process. During the time leading up to tornado dissipation, we find that hook echo median drop size (D₀) and medianZ_DRremain relatively constant, but hook echo medianK_DPand estimated number concentration (N_T) increase. TheZ_DRarc maximum magnitude andZ_DR–K_DPseparation orientation angles are observed to decrease in most dissipation cases. Neither the area of large hail nor theZ_DRcolumn area exhibit strong signals leading up to tornado dissipation. Finally, combinations of storm-scale behaviors and TVS behaviors occur most frequently just prior to tornado dissipation, but also are common 15–20 min prior to dissipation. The results from this study provide evidence that nowcasting tornado dissipation using dual-polarization radar may be possible when combined with TVS monitoring, subject to important caveats. 

Abstract Supercell storms are the most prolific producers of violent tornadoes, though only a fraction of supercells produce tornadoes. Past research into the differences between tornadic and nontornadic supercells have provided some insights but are of little utility to a real‐time warning decision process. Operational weather radars provide consistent observations in real time, but conventional radar techniques have not been able to effectively distinguish between tornadic and nontornadic supercells. After the national radar network upgrade to polarimetric capabilities in 2013, a polarimetric signature frequently observed in supercells is the separation of low‐level enhanced differential reflectivityZ_DRand specific differential phaseK_DPregions. We analyzed this signature in tornadic and nontornadic supercell cases and found that, although the separation distances are similar, the separation orientations are statistically significantly different. Tornadic supercells have orientations more orthogonal to storm motion and nontornadic supercells have more parallel orientations. Possible reasons for these differences are discussed. 

Abstract Polarimetric radar observations of Hurricane Matthew's asymmetric eyewall were captured by WSR‐88D radars from 1500 UTC on 7 October 2016 to 0000 UTC on 8 October 2016. Raindrop size sorting was observed within the eyewall, marked by a differential reflectivity (Z_DR) enhancement region situated upwind of a specific differential phase (K_DP) enhancement region, both overlapping the maximum reflectivity. This signature indicated that the largest raindrops fell out of the eyewall updrafts faster than the smaller, abundant drops that were advected further downstream by the primary circulation. Airborne Doppler radar observations revealed an updraft structure in an azimuthal location consistent with the size‐sorting signature and previous observational studies of eyewall kinematic asymmetries. Given that a tropical cyclone's environment or internal dynamics can modulate the eyewall's kinematic and microphysical structure, we used a simple size‐sorting model that only includes sedimentation and advection of raindrops by the axisymmetric tangential wind to examine how an eyewall size‐sorting signature responds to artificial changes in the tangential wind speed and initial raindrop size distributions (DSDs). The axisymmetric tangential wind was retrieved from WSR‐88D radar observations using the Ground‐Based Velocity Track Display technique. The simple model was capable of producing an eyewall size‐sorting signature with an azimuthal separation between the simulated Z_DRand K_DPenhancements in general agreement with the observed separation (~20°) at low levels. Sensitivity tests showed that the azimuthal separation between the Z_DRand K_DPenhancements responded to changes in the tangential wind speed, but not to changes in the initial DSDs aloft.